Warsh's June 17 FOMC delivered a unanimous 12-0 hold at 3.50–3.75%, but the dot plot flipped: the median 2026 projection rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, implying a hike rather than a cut, and 17 of 18 participants judged inflation risks to the upside. Warsh declined to submit his own dot. Now PCE — the Fed's preferred gauge — lands Thursday. April PCE was +3.8% YoY headline, +3.3% core. Wells Fargo expects headline to rise to 4.1% YoY (+0.5% MoM) on energy costs, with core at 3.4% YoY (+0.3% MoM). A hot print validates the hawkish dots; a soft core would support the camp that sees the oil shock as transitory. The number lands into a hawkish committee with little patience for upside surprises.
May PCE (Thursday) is the first major inflation read since Warsh's hawkish debut. WF expects headline 4.1% YoY, core 3.4% — the biggest annual core increase since late 2023.
Median 2026 rate rose to 3.8% from 3.4%. Nine of 18 project a hike this year. Fed-funds futures now imply ~77% odds of a hike by December, up from ~24% a month earlier.
First June growth read as the US-Iran interim deal eases the energy crunch. Watch the prices-paid subcomponents for the disinflation signal the dovish camp needs.
After NVDA, DELL, MRVL, and SNOW all beat and raised, MU's HBM demand and DRAM pricing tell us whether the AI buildout is pulling memory tight.
Turnaround hinges on inventory normalization, margin recovery, and China stabilization. Tells us whether premium global brands see the energy-relief consumer tailwind.
The Fed's hawkish turn came even as oil fell — signaling the inflation concern is broader than energy supply shocks. Goldman: the path to avoiding hikes is narrow.
| Ticker | Company | When | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKC | McCormick & Co. | Tue BMO | — |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial | Tue AMC | Early Q2 banking bellwether. |
| MU | Micron Technology | Wed AMC | AI memory read — see spotlight. |
| PAYX | Paychex Inc. | Wed BMO | Labor market proxy. |
| GIS | General Mills | Wed BMO | — |
| NKE | Nike Inc. | Thu AMC | Consumer read — see spotlight. |
| MCK | McKesson (if scheduled) | Thu AMC | — |
| WBA | Walgreens Boots (if scheduled) | Thu BMO | — |